A decade following the UK embarked on a rushed referendum that divided the country and triggered disorder, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which nobody is prepared.
That is the message from two leading commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a possibly contentious and seismic referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can build support rapidly," the commentator remarked. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our region remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Aims to Stir Debate
The duo have examined the political, economic and societal rationales for any governmental shift in a book, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the topic with a series of public talks that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everybody, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, unclear proposal whose results have remained undefined because then you end up with an extraordinarily split population where the losing side are not reconciled to losing and the victorious side are uncertain precisely what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue that moment is imminent, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and unionists downplay the likelihood, leaving it unclear whether or when there will be a referendum.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has hidden the shortage of informed dialogue, said the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A lot has gone on in universities but hardly any elected officials or advocates want to engage with the basics. To illustrate, what sort of state should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, none of the commentators advocates unity or the current situation. Both composes two articles that strive for objectivity in detailing the rationale for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling economic and social figures, past examples and structural examples.
Arguments cover national emblems, duties, healthcare systems, pensions, public liabilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The goal is to enlighten and provoke conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there is still lacking a discussion," commented the writer. "Dialogue suggests an acceptance of the concept that there could be valid points on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where voters claim they prefer unity but refuse greater financial contributions or implementing a different emblem to acknowledge pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin must work out what the plan from nationalist groups is other than just stating: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride believes a national vote in his generation is likely and that it might occur unexpectedly. "There might be just a reckless or a poor or a incompetent secretary of state who says: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, legitimate perspectives, he stated. "One side will succeed in this matter and the other side will eventually lose but both parties has has important lessons to learn from the opposing arguments."
Request for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster should engage with the discussion, said the analyst. "This is about the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish issue."
