Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency sparked by the announcement of a new 28-article proposal for ending the war appeared – briefly – to have been stabilised. A American diplomat spoke of "notable headway" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its response: another massive barrage of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Peace Talks and Military Action
The sequence of contrasting events captured the harsh reality of the outgoing year. By day, diplomatic battles are waged: positive announcements are delivered from various governments. Significant resources is allocated on containing particular approaches. By night, the Kremlin clearly shows the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the key method for achieving "settlement".
After-Dark Attacks
As Russia's attack progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's exposure was exposed. Ukraine is equipped to monitor rocket firings from across the border, a ability afforded by current data. From witness perspectives, military aircraft that had been dispatched to counter approaching aerial threats flew past – sophisticated military planes delivered to Ukraine by NATO members.
Moments later, Kyiv's missile defense thundered: multiple launches fired to intercept a incoming threat. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, most likely provided by allied countries. Every deployment creates sudden vibrations, rattling buildings. The brief panic quickly transforms into grim resignation: perhaps the approaching threat won't hit its mark this time, sparing the city from devastation and further power outages.
Continuous Dangers
Soon after, a large-caliber weapon engaged a drone in the vicinity, part of a defensive team – probably imported technology. Unfortunately, the projectiles didn't strike the hostile drone – it continued its flight toward its objective.
Intermittently, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv greeted the daybreak reports: seven people killed, damage and utility failures in numerous residences as a result of the evening attack. As typically, everyone still continued their routines – experiencing conflict. But those 24 hours demonstrated Ukraine's vital need on international aid – a need that regional partners are demonstrably unable to fill in the near term.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The comprehensive proposal from US administration sparked intense emotion, controversy and deep concern – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after prior negotiation attempts and bilateral conferences.
Every new initiative from Washington follows the identical sequence: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, effectively counters. They manage the tension but never actually achieve victory. This trend will, no doubt, persist.
Political Considerations
It is easy to blame certain parties of repeatedly advocating Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. US administration works based on a assumption well known to experienced diplomats: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have failed to defend militarily. The US administration believes that it is unfeasible to compel Moscow to relinquish the land that it presently holds in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The challenge is that while accepting these circumstances, American administration does nothing to deter Moscow, through diplomacy or military means, from assuming that the current condition will not evolve additionally in its favour in the months ahead.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, the Kremlin is convinced that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its partners are approaching exhaustion. Their incentive to agree to terms that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is virtually nonexistent. There may be numerous efforts to achieve ceasefire, but they will continue as long as Russia's government remains supremely confident in the outcome.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still persist, progressively conceding civilians and areas but averting a entire defensive failure until conditions improve in its favour.
Current Realities
Realistically, there are no actual prerequisites for a ceasefire. Now, individual motivations are becoming relevant: personal goals to mediate resolution and achieve global acclaim, and the government's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to unite the population around the national cause against any initiative Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their focus does not move to internal issues. And although their objective will now be much harder after latest incidents, it remains quite doubtful that this will change their overall approach.
These two forces are influencing discussions.
Summary and Prospects
It took a only one week to eliminate the suggested clauses of the latest plan. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by US administration, resistance by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with calming attempts of negotiators, and finally, current information leaks, all served their function.
While new plans based on established approaches are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist diplomatic offensives from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and show particular unwillingness to alter the situation, if they maintain solidarity and enhance their military capacity at a much faster pace. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to repel nightly air assaults will, for the predictable period, largely rely on ongoing international assistance.
